There's going to be some slick Linux distro that slides in quietly and has too many cool features to be ignored, that will knock the consumer market off balance again. I think it will happen in the next year or so, when someone who cares about consumer money steps up to the plate and fortifies a distro like Ubuntu. Coupled with the retail power of companies like Wal-Mart, Circuit City, Best Buy, and Sam's Club for distribution these machines from(place company name here) will reach the masses in a way that Apple can't seem to pull off. This distro will take the time to get onto the iTunes wagon somehow, possibly by teaming up with some WINE developers and getting the Windows version to run in addition to including native iPod support.
I think once Vista rolls out and some people get a taste of the old look because it won't run the fancy new window manager on their older machines, they'll get mad and go looking for alternatives. Whoever can catch these folks and woo them with their toys at retail will grab their cash. This would be a fine time for Apple to have a single processor, middle of the line headless tower waiting to take their $800-900-in the can and ready to go. It's hard for some people to give up what they have(19" flat panel cool keyboards/mice etc...), but the mini just doesn't have the power of a full size desktop.
I'm not buying anything for some time, so I'll be floating around in my 2 year old powerbook waiting for the waters to calm down a bit. Who knows, maybe I'll get lucky and pick up a mini for the kids to play with. =)
I blogged on this a while ago. As a matter of fact I even mocked it up. Check it out...
http://robztechblog.com/CMS/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2&Itemid=54
Right now is the time. It's going to be a small window where under the right circumstances, a shift can begin to occur. Vista is a while off, and in the mean time, Apple is blazing foreword adding features to the OS. There's still one big problem: Apple needs to let people know they exist, and get into retail in a big way. Every minute they waste, Microsoft adds more of their look and feel to Vista. People are fine with being extorted by the blocker and antivirus companies, and they seem quite fine with taking their machine into the shop because of malware induced comas. If Apple misses this boat it could be some time before they get a foothold in the PC market.
It seems to me like Bill Gates has a calling. He is driven to be on top of the biz, and he's succeeded. Will people be able to wait through one more iteration of the registry and continue to pay the way of cottage industries, whom in my opinion shouldn't even exist? Does anyone really care who makes their software that runs internet explorer? Is office 2000 really good enough? Time will tell if all these feature rearrangements make any difference and are worth paying for. If not, then it's going to be time for many companies to tighten their belts, not only Microsoft.
I personally don't care who wins, just as long as Apple continues development on OS X, and of kick out a new iPod every so often. Also, I think it's time for another platform to pop up and make them all rethink how we use our computers and what we use them for. After 20 years of computing, it's time for a shift of sorts. Let's all save our pennies and wait for something better.
What's Coming Next?
Forum contest Leaderboard
Does the Mac Need a New Model?
Bill Gates: Energizer Bunny of the Digital Age