MacWorld, Intel and a Big Yawn?

There are times when a rumor becomes so persistent that it eventually morphs from back room gossip to a foregone conclusion. The transformation was recently completed by the “Intel based iBook at MacWorld” rumor. The once rumor has become so prevalent and believable that if Apple fails to deliver an Intel based iBook at MacWorld the event will be regarded as a complete failure.

The first question that arises once you accept the rumor as true is: What about the PowerBooks? If the Intel chips are as great as Steve says they are, one wonders what the motivation will be for anyone to buy a G4 based PowerBook. In fact, would not the new iBook not only cannibalize current sales of the PowerBook but also severely diminish future sales of the PowerBook? If you’re asking how the new iBook would hurt future sales of the PowerBook realize that many users who would prefer to own a PowerBook might not be willing to wait for the PowerBook to appear and instead purchase said iBook thereby reducing future sales of the more profitable PowerBook. That problem is easily avoided if Apple pre announces the PowerBooks. By giving users a tangible date for introduction of the new PowerBooks, most of the users craving that Intel goodness in PowerBook form will be content to wait as long as the date does not extend too far into the future.

The more important, and more overlooked question, is what if no one really cares? That seems like an absurd situation, just glancing around the web there is a ton of buzz about the transition to Intel. There is also a widely held notion that the ‘Books are lagging fairly far behind the competition. Add to those perceptions all the anecdotes you run across about people breathlessly waiting for MacWorld just so they can order one of whatever portable Apple releases. In case you haven’t heard any delicious anecdotes of that ilk, please allow a momentary tangent.

There is an iBook out there that functions perfectly save for one minor detail: the screen flops around like a fish in a bad eighties video. The cause for the screen’s instability? As fate would have it, the computer was placed screen side down, while open, and used as a makeshift podium of sorts by a 41 inch three year old…twice (iBooks may be thin but the added inch is just enough to reach the box of forbidden Fudgsicles). The owner of the iBook, under most circumstances, would just shell out the money for a new laptop unconcerned with whatever minor revision might be coming. In this case, however, the owner is keenly aware of the upcoming transition and is content to wait for Apple’s next laptop update.

Clearly, the iBook with the hinge of spaghetti owner cares about the transition but, perhaps, he is the exception rather than the rule. Put in a different fashion: Using the Mac web as a gauge for the amount of excitement over the switch to Intel is probably not the most accurate form of measurement. People who frequent the Mac web are much more informed, and by extension, much more interested in the transition than the average computer user or even the average Mac user.

If the web is not indicative of the more general situation, then we will have to rely on more objective measures. One useful statistic would be the number of laptops Apple has sold since the switch was announced at the World Wide Developers conference in June. If, as some suppose, everyone is waiting to buy ‘Books after the move to Intel one would expect to see a decline in sales of the G4 based models following the announcement. That particular theory is invalidated by the numbers. Rather than seeing a decline in sales of portable Macs the quarters following the announcement saw an increasing number of ‘Books headed to hands of consumers.

One could explain this seeming anomaly away by positing that what is actually occurring is a Mac renaissance and that the numbers of ‘Books sold are increasing in spite of the announced switch. They might further argue that the increases in sales actually reflect depressed demand. Therefore, they might conclude, Intel powered laptops will be a market shaking smash hit. To better judge the accuracy of this notion it would behoove us to look at Apple’s last major chip transition: the move to the G5. Judging by the anticipation found in the Mac-o-sphere one would have come to conclusion that the G5 would sell like the proverbial hotcakes. To Apple’s chagrin the G5 towers failed to meet sales expectations. Thus, the conclusion that the chip inside matters more to the Mac addicted than the PC Mac conflicted seems increasingly credible.

Will the Intel based iBooks be greeted with credit card melting clamoring or a muffled yawn? Certainly the Mac web will investigate, evaluate and highly rate the new machine but it is doubtful that even the most concerted efforts of Mac sites (not that there are concerted, orchestrated efforts) will make the coming iBook a hit if it doesn’t appeal to folks who don’t bother to read Mac sites. Surely, among the overly faithful Mac users out there, there exists a good deal of pent up demand, but that demand won’t be enough to propel the new ‘Books to the rarified status of market moving hit. The most likely outcome is a continued steady growth in sales though, should the Intel revisions prove substantially more compelling than the machines they replace, the reaction may be a bit stronger. Whatever the outcome, the sales of new ‘Books will be predicated on the desirability of the machine rather than the chip swap. In the end, the only people who really care about what will be powering their new toy are the tragically technical.