iPhone Inevitability?

Ed Zander knows cell phones and, considering he is the CEO of Motorola, is refreshingly candid. While most CEOs speak purposely in the most ambiguous terms imaginable (“Our greatest challenge is recasting the mode of discreet operation vis-à-vis the continental area of North America excluding Canada”). So when Mr. Zander predicts, in very certain terms, that Apple will introduce a Smart phone it is sorely tempting to assume Mr. Zander is correct. While Apple might introduce a smart phone one suspects it is not the foregone conclusion Mr. Zander believes.

To the average Apple fan the mere notion that Apple would make a cell phone is ample reason to work oneself into a lather of equal parts anticipation and fantasy. The fantasy part is where the Apple fans are setting themselves up for disappointment. They, naturally enough, assume that if Apple were to turn its collective attention to a cell phone project they would assuredly churn out something extraordinarily great. Imagine a phone where: the contacts are really easy to edit, a phone that is just a phone, a phone that is impossibly small and energy efficient, a phone with great big buttons for easy dialing, a phone with a scroll wheel to access your full library of iTunes, a phone that plays multimedia stuff on a large screen and a phone that replicates all the functionality of the most advanced PDA. By now you’ve grasped one of the problems: people use their cell phones in such a wide variety of ways that the notion of one cell phone that the masses will love seems to be a bit of a stretch. But, much like the joke* where two hikers meet the bear, it not necessary for Apple to produce the perfect one-size fits all phone. In theory Apple merely has to make the best phone when compared to competing products.

Making the best phone around seems like a challenge that Apple would relish. Imagine combining the industrial design skills that the Cupertino campus seems to have been monopolizing with the excellent software that has been an Apple hallmark of late. Consumers, one would imagine, would go nuts for the thing. Or they would if they had their pick of phones. Unfortunately consumers aren’t generally allowed to choose just any cell phone. Unlike picking a new car or a new computer when it comes time to choose a new cell phone you’re (unless you are willing to jump over hurdles that would have left Jesse Owen’s groin bruised) forced to choose from the options presented to you by you cell service carrier. The practice, known as the razor and blades model, is not unusual but it would leave Apple trying to cater to the whims of the cell provider while still producing a product a consumer actually desires.

Producing a phone that satisfies both the draconian cell service provider and the consumer might be possible. Well, it would be possible for most companies besides Apple because most companies display a little more flexibility than Apple when dealing with their corporate brethren. Most of us probably recall the recent falling out with IBM but a less well-known but more telling example is the withdrawing of iMacs from Best Buy. For those who don’t remember the story unfolded something as follows: The original iMac was a constant feature of Best Buy circulars and other advertising pushes. When the iMacs begin shipping with multiple flavors Best Buy requested that Apple send them more of the Indigo models than the rest of the colors. Apple demurred and Best Buy stopped selling Macs until the mini was released. Other examples abound but the point can be stated thusly: Apple is very secure in their view of the consumer world, real world sales and reseller requests be damned. One can only imagine the trouble this mindset would cause when, say, Cingular wanted to charge $399.00 for a new phone and Apple wished it priced differently or, perhaps worse, when there was a technical issue about the phone between the two companies.

One last reason why Apple wouldn’t want to enter the cell phone market brings us straight back to engineering. Apple has no experience designing a cell phone and would thus be pretty far behind n the learning curve. It is easy to think that as soon as Apple touches a device it becomes magically cool and indescribably hip but the cell phone market is hyper competitive and there have been plenty of companies trying to make cell phones better for quite some time. Competition is generally a very good driver of innovation and Apple has not been the beneficiary of all the trials and tribulations that the cell manufacturers have been through. Hence it is doubtful that Apple can just jump into the game at this late point and produce a phone with great looks, fantastic ergonomics and stellar software.

With some of the reasons laid out why Apple should not make a cell phone the idea that they will actually produce one might seem farfetched. This was the case before the nano rolled out along with the well advertised but under-designed ROKR. The nano proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that a full featured color screen iPod can be made diminutive enough that a phone could easily incorporate everything in the nano with plenty of room left over for silly cameras and befuddling buttons. With the inclusion of iTunes on the ROKR Apple has given up the last chance to deny the world of cellular communications iTunes goodness. Undoubtedly Steve Jobs could have spun such a move in a manner that would have the pundits nodding their heads in agreement and ensured that any iTunes goodness on the road was only coming from Apple’s iPod. Yet that was not the chosen path which paints Apple into a bit of a corner: they can either leave half hobbled moto iTunes phones on the market which will please no one in the long run but maintain sales of iPods or Apple can go for the mainstream brass ring by releasing a iPod/PDA/iPhone combo. Newton fans will be happy and people with overburdened pockets will rejoice. The safer choice is keeping iTunes primarily on the iPod but Apple is known for occasionally taking the path less traveled.

*Following that link will take you to a list of completely safe, yet utterly unfunny, jokes. Proceed at your own risk.