Apple Market Share to Explode?
On June 30 Apple Matters’ Darcy Richardson wrote an article questioning whether or not Apple is in jeopardy. In it she discussed some reasons for the temporary decrease in Apple Computer’s stock value.
It does seem that there are a lot of reports of Apple’s future demise. When researching my article last week about Maine’s $41 million laptop expenditure, I noticed reader comments about the inadvisability of Maine buying laptops from a sinking company. I knew that Apple was having a few difficulties that I suspected would only have a short term stock effect, but was surprised that some people feel the company is on the road to oblivion.
Those who think Apple Computer is on its last gasp might want to look at the latest news. It appears that Apple is poised for a market explosion.
According to Investor’s Business Daily, a recent survey by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence shows a big increase in Macintosh computers in the past month. The loser seems to be industry leader Dell Computer.
In surveying consumers likely to buy a new desktop computer in the next six months, TechnoMetrica reports that 16% reported a preference for Apple. This is up from 6% in May.
When compared to all computers, Dell is losing ground. It still holds the #1 position at 41%, but this is down quite a bit from 48% in May and 55% in April. Apple and Hewlett-Packard tied at 11%.
Charles Wolf, market analyst for Needham & Co, has been busy interpreting another suvey. In research conducted by Harris Interactive, he concludes that Apple’s home market share in the United States is set to triple. His analysis takes into account the difference between what buyers tend to say they will do versus what really happens.
Wolf attributes the increased interest in the Mac to the ability to run Windows applications. Based on Harris Interactive’s survey, Wolf also suggests an effect from the success of iPods. Wolf reports that iPod owners have a 9% higher potential switch rate than non-iPod users.
One key thing is to remember that both of these reports talk of potential buyers. Both surveys are designed to predict future behavior. None deal with current behavior.
I don’t know how reliable these reports will ultimately be, but anecdotal evidence suggests that they could be right. In an ars technica Infinite Loop article, Jacqui Cheng asked readers if they had noticed any increase in Mac buying. Several people commented on friends and neighbors who had switched or will likely switch with their next purchase. A few commented that they had personally changed systems. Often the ability to use Windows was cited as a reason.
Is your personal experience the same as that of Infinite Loop readers? Are your friends or colleagues considering purchasing a Mac for the first time?
I’m also curious about your thoughts on why the big upswing in respondents saying they want to buy a Mac. Various analysts suggest the iPod halo effect, Boot Camp, or the latest direct comparison advertising. Do you think any one of these had a bigger influence than the other factors? I’d love to hear your thoughts.
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I personally have noted comments or conversations that focus on either security or iPods as reasons to switch. A couple of folks I know that bought iPods after buying PCs have noted to me their regret at not having bought Macs, and a number of people have increasingly commented on being fed up with spyware or viri infestations.
My best weapon so far has been my MacBook. People that come up to me in a coffeeshop I frequent on weekends (Called Beans in the Belfrey - in an old church in Brunswick, MD) with an open wifi see my MacBook and are struck by its clean lines and bright clear screen. They are further blown away when they see the iSight camera and iChat…
Let people see a Mac in person, and they sell themselves! The Apple stores have to be the best thing Apple has done for themselves in recent years.
I don’t know how reliable these reports will ultimately be, but anecdotal evidence suggests that they could be right.
Every week, it seems like every Mac fan site in the universe asks the same question (is Mac market share about to skyrocket), predicts the same answer (yes, because of fill-in-the-blank-reason-here!), and conveniently ignores the fact that this prediction has been consistently wrong for about ten years.
Maybe it’ll happen, maybe it won’t. But I’d like to see some perspective here on how bad Mac fanatics seem to be at this sort of prognostication.
I don’t know if it’ll skyrocket but it is definetly going to rise, and, personally, I think one reason people start noticing computers is Apple’s iPod, they notice Apple’s clean modern sleek and functional design and become curious about their computer line.
i bought an iPod 4th gen last summer, and after leaving a serious impression of quality, the iPod made me buy a nano for my girlfriend and a 20” intel imac this may. my colleague was impressed and bought a macbook pro. another colleague saw this macbook pro and ordered a macbook white. i am seeing a nice chain reaction here ... everyone is jelous of our macs. i’m from latvia (that’s in EU) btw.
I do agree with janet, apple on the rise, ipod ibook
macs ... go go mac
The big upswing is the result probably the result of many things. I purchased my first iPod last November. Shortly followed by two Macs. I’ve always wanted a Mac, but they haven’t always as affordable as a x86 PC. With the introduction of the Intel based Macs, my first was a Mac mini G4 at a discounted price. Within the first week, I absolutely fell in love with the OS. So, I then went out and purchased another (Intel based) for work.
Now, enter the “halo effect”. I was the first in my office to own an iPod. After others seen me with mine and tested it out for themselves, three went out and purchased one of there own. As for having a Mac at work, well two others have purchased Macs since. One a Mac book and the other a mini. As the result of one initial iPod purchase, two iPods, one Mac Mini G4, one Mac Mini Core Duo, one Mac Mini Core Solo, and a Macbook have been purchased.
No different than when the PC first had it’s “big bang” word of mouth and having others see the products in action (especially in a corporate IT environment) for themselves, have done accomplished something that standard advertising simply cannot.
Making the Mac more affordable, not to mention having a slick MP3 player and software, have done wonders for Apple. As long as Apple can deliver on media other than music, through iTune, and continue to innovate the iPod, they should be able to put the company into the position it should have been in the first place.
As soon as I stopped being the only iPod user at my college, I knew apple were on to a money maker. As soon as I stopped being the only mac user at university, i started to realise why…
I’m not saying it was intended to be, but the iPod has become a key for apple, a foot in the door. It’s a nice little device, that just works, there are no arguments. Apple showed with that what they can do with computers.
I just worry apple will slip. Using the iPod as an example, the last few generations of iPod have shown a slip in design and useability consideration. I hope to God they don’t make the same mistake with their computers.
I recenty made the very scary and daunting switch from PowerPC to Intel, I’m typing to you now on my Intel 20” iMac, my 12” PowerPC powerbook remains at the sidelines, but I have to be honest I’ve been using it less and less, the new iMac is a beautiful machine.
That said, I prefer the powerPC noebooks over the Intel range any day of the week.
I have a little drawing of a thermometer on my whiteboard at the office next to a list of 10 or so names that I would have thought it would take hell freezing over before they would get Macs. All but two on the list now have checks next to them and the thermometer is very near zero. I attribute the switching to OSX on Intel which brings the ability to run Windows. (via Parallels) Boot Camp is cool, but nobody uses it. Running Windows apps with Parallels while within OSX seals the deal for most on the list.
I’ve been a big fan of Apple going down to 55. I just keep buying more.
Using the iPod as an example, the last few generations of iPod have shown a slip in design and useability consideration.
May I ask what exactly you’re referring to?
I’ve just visited a customer (large hospital), where the IT manager (an absolute Windows supporter in the hospital), admitted that she had bought an iBook at home. She will put Windows on it, but is for the moment playing with OS X.
This is definite a person that would never have bought a mac 10 months ago.
So yes, I think they will sell a lot of these machine.
Advise: buy Apple stock, at the price it is now, it really is a bargain.
Why is a “sudden increase” in Mac market share considered even desirable? Seems to me that would just draw excessive much media attention, and a potential anti-Mac backlash/ad blitz by competitors.
I would prefer a “steady state”, under the radar approach. According to what numbers I can validate, Mac market share in the US went from 3.25% to about 4.5% over the past year or so. That’s a 25% increase. If that 25% increase per year continued, Mac market share would be back in double digits by early 2010. And who will care so much about the reasons?
In response to Beeblebrox.
“...conveniently ignores the fact that this prediction has been consistently wrong for about ten years.”
Do research before you make uneducated comments.
Look at Apple stock in Nov. 2004. About $19-21 a share. Look at the stock now. $55 a share. But wait even better. There was a split in between those. And apple’s 56-week high is 86.40. That is 8.64 times its value in Nov. 2004. Sorry you regret not investing in them earlier.
Sorry 52-week high of $86.40, but I am sure it was 56 as well.
CaptainOats, Beeblebrox was not talking about share price, he was talking about market share.
Of course the reason that what’s going on now is different from anything before is Apple moving mainstream with Intel processors and OSX (underlying Unix). It’s the shell-game, and confounds people who still look for reasons to hold out against Mac.
Couple this with the FUD factor of Vista delays, and an absolute void of any big upgrades this coming Holiday season except for the Mac, and you’ve got an environment much more like the early 80’s and the days of 16-bit processors where any one of them could suddenly seize sizable market share.